Overview on Chinese.Economic Policy Responses to COVID 19

From IMF

Background. On early January 2020, Chinese authorities determined that a pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan was caused by a novel coronavirus. The government imposed strict containment measures, including the extension of the national Lunar New Year holiday, the lockdown of Hubei province, large-scale mobility restrictions at the national level, social distancing, and a 14-day quarantine period for returning migrant workers. Reflecting these containment measures, the economy contracted by 6.8 percent (yoy) in 2020 Q1.

Reopening of the economy. Starting in mid-February 2020, the government has gradually removed mobility and activity restrictions, prioritizing essential sectors, specific industries, regions, and population groups based on ongoing risk assessments. Most businesses and schools have reopened nationwide, but social distancing rules remain in place at the micro level and foreign entry remains restricted to contain imported cases. Localized movement restrictions were re-imposed in new hotspots, but have been lifted subsequently. Testing and individualized health QR codes are used to gauge the path of the virus and contain outbreaks. The authorities encouraged less inter-city travel during the 2021 lunar new year holiday, while imposing strict testing and quarantine requirements. Following the early-2020 lockdown, the economy embarked on a V-shaped recovery yielding positive annual growth of 2.3 percent in 2020. The first quarter 2021 saw lower sequential growth more in line with China's pre-crisis pace, with the strong year-on-year growth number of 18.3 percent mostly reflecting the base effect from the large contraction in 2020 Q1.

Vaccine. China has granted conditional market approvals for four COVID-19 vaccines, including three inactivated vaccines requiring 2 shots and an adenoviral vector vaccine requiring 1 shot. China also approved three vaccines for emergency use, including one recombinant protein subunit vaccine requiring 3 shots and two inactivated vaccines requiring 2 shots. As of June 29, China had reportedly administered 1,225.73 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines and has achieve the goal of vaccinating 40 percent of China's population by the end of June. China aims to vaccinate 70-80 percent of its population by end-2021/beginning 2022 as it continues to make its vaccines available to other countries.

Key Policy Responses as of July 1, 2021

FISCAL

An estimated RMB 4.9 trillion (or 4.7 percent of GDP) of discretionary fiscal measures were announced, of which RMB 4.2 trillion is estimated to have been implemented in 2020. Key measures include: (i) increased spending on epidemic prevention and control, (ii) production of medical equipment, (iii) accelerated disbursement of unemployment insurance and extension to migrant workers, (iv) tax relief and waived social security contributions, and (v) additional public investment. Automatic stabilizers further increase on budget support. The overall public sector support is expected to be higher. For example, support outside the budget includes additional guarantees for SMEs of RMB 400 billion (0.4 percent of GDP) and fee and tariff cuts of over RMB 900 billion (0.9 percent of GDP) for usage of such items as roads, ports, and electricity.

MONETARY AND MACRO-FINANCIAL

The PBC provided monetary policy support and acted to safeguard financial market stability. Key measures include: (i) liquidity injection into the banking system via open market operations (reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities), (ii) expansion of re-lending and re-discounting facilities by RMB 1.8 trillion to support manufacturers of medical supplies and daily necessities, micro-, small- and medium-sized firms and the agricultural sector (phased out at end-2020) and reduction of their interest rates by 50 bps (re-lending facilities) and 25 bps (re-discounting facility), (iii) reduction of the 7-day and 14-day reverse repo rates by 30 bps, as well as the 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate and targeted MLF rate by 30 and 20 bps, respectively, (iv) targeted RRR cuts by 50-100 bps for large- and medium-sized banks that meet inclusive financing criteria which benefit micro- and small-sized enterprises (MSEs), an additional 100 bps for eligible joint-stock banks, and 100 bps for small- and medium-sized banks to support SMEs, (v) reduction of the interest on excess reserves from 72 to 35 bps, (vi) expansion of policy banks' credit line to private firms and MSEs (RMB 350 billion), and (vii) introduction of new instruments to support lending to MSEs, including a zero-interest "funding-for-lending" scheme (RMB 400 billion) to finance 40 percent of local banks' new unsecured loans and incentivizing them to further extend payment holidays for eligible loans by subsidizing 1 percent of loan principles (RMB 40 billion).

The government has also taken multiple steps to limit tightening in financial conditions, including measured forbearance to provide financial relief to affected households, corporates, and regions facing repayment difficulties. Key measures include (i) encouraging lending to SMEs, including supporting uncollateralized SME loans from local banks, raising the target for large banks’ lending growth to MSEs from 30 percent to 40 percent, and establishing an evaluation system for banks’ lending to MSEs, (ii) delay of loan payments, with the deadline extended to the end of 2021 , and eased loan size restrictions for online loans, and other credit support measures for eligible SMEs and households, (iii) tolerance for higher NPLs and reduced NPL provision coverage requirements, (iv) support bond issuance by financial institutions to finance SME lending, (v) additional financing support for corporates via increased bond issuance by corporates, including relaxing rules on insurers for bond investments, (vi) increased fiscal support for credit guarantees, (vii) flexibility in the implementation of the asset management reform, and (vii) easing of housing policies by local governments.

EXCHANGE RATE AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

The exchange rate has been allowed to adjust flexibly. The counter-cyclical adjustment factor in the daily trading band's central parity formation was phased out. The reserve requirement on FX forward was reduced to zero. A ceiling on cross-border financing under the macroprudential assessment framework for financial institutions and enterprises was raised by 25 percent in March, but lowered to the original level for financial institutions in December and for enterprises in January 2021. Restrictions on the investment quota of foreign institutional investors (QFII and RQFII) were removed and new quota for domestic institutional investors were granted. The macroprudential adjustment coefficient for overseas lending by domestic enterprises was increased by two-thirds in January 2021, leading to a higher ceiling. The FX reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions will be raised to 7 percent from 5 percent, effective on June 15.